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Interfuel substitution and natural gas trade in North America

Thesis/Dissertation ·
OSTI ID:5485166

Institutional changes in North American natural gas markets have created much uncertainty about the prospects for gas trade between Canada, Mexico, and the US. This dissertation describes the formulations of the Gas Trade Model (GTM) and the submodel of US gas demand. Together, they provide a modeling framework within which international gas trade after the deregulation of the US natural gas market can be examined. GTM is a market equilibrium model that allows for interdependence between gas prices and the quantities traded at a single point in time. Regionally disaggregated trade flows are projected between Canada, Mexico, and the US. The model is intended to provide a background for realistic bargaining over international prices and risk sharing in an era when the US market is deregulated, but Canada and Mexico maintain export controls. As a complement to GTM, a submodel of US natural gas demand is developed. It consists of four demand sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, and electric utility. The submodel allows for dynamic adjustment in all four sectors. In addition, it recognizes that interfuel substitution possibilities in the industrial and electric utility sectors are increasing along with the presence of equipment that can burn either gas or fuel oil.

Research Organization:
Stanford Univ., CA (USA)
OSTI ID:
5485166
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English