Observational and theoretical studies of greenhouse climate effects

Conference · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1988

OSTI ID:5473209

Taylor, K E; Grotch, S L

The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has increased by about 25% over the last 150 years and will surely continue to increase as a result of fossil fuel combustion. Enhancement of the atmospheric effect by elevated levels of CO/sub 2/ and other trace gases may over the next century increase global average surface air temperature by a few degrees Celsius to levels unprecedented in human history. Even eliminating emissions of CO/sub 2/ will not prevent global climate change because the combined greenhouse effect of less abundant but radiatively important gases such as methane and chlorocarbons is likely to be just as large as the impact of projected increases in carbon dioxide concentration. Quantitative estimates of future warming that could result from continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations come from sophisticated mathematical models, which are the modern climatologists' primary prognostic tool. The current limitations and uncertains in these model results, however, prevent definitive predictions of the regional climatic responses that make up the projected global change. Deficiencies in the historical climate record prevent confirmation of the climate model predictions, but future research offers the potential for improved understanding. 25 refs., 10 figs.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 5473209
• Report Number(s): UCRL-98087; CONF-871204-7; ON: DE88006237
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CHEMISTRY
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATES
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
TEMPERATURE EFFECTS