Evaluation of probabilistic simulation methods and development of optimization techniques for capacity expansion planning of electric power generation systems
The cumulant, piecewise linear, and derate approximations of the probabilistic simulation of electric generating systems are compared. It is found that the cumulant method requires substantially less computer time than the piecewise linear approximation and is slower than the derate method. The accuracy of the cumulant method is adequate for energy calculations in expansion planning studies, but not for Loss-of-Load-Probability (LOLP) calculations. A hybrid method that consists of the alternating use of the cumulant and piecewise linear approximations for energy and LOLP calculations, respectively, yields good results in both accuracy and computational efficiency. In addition, a new algorithm is developed for incorporating energy forecast uncertainty into the calculation of LOLP and plant energy production without significant increase in computational time. It is shown that when the energy forecast uncertainty is considered, the LOLP values increase and some of the energy generated by intermediate units is shifted to peaking units.
- OSTI ID:
- 5457215
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
POLICY AND ECONOMY
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
POWER SYSTEMS
CAPACITY
PLANNING
ALGORITHMS
DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING
LOAD MANAGEMENT
OPTIMIZATION
PROBABILITY
ENERGY SYSTEMS
MANAGEMENT
MATHEMATICAL LOGIC
PROGRAMMING
296000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power
200300 - Electric Power Engineering- Power Transmission & Distribution- (-1989)