The cost of export steam coal - What role the new players

Journal Article · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1990 · Materials and Society; (United States)

OSTI ID:5434785

Barnett, D W ^[1]

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1. Macquarie Univ., North Ryde, New South Wales (Australia)

In recent years Australia and South Africa have dominated the seaborne steam coal trade, supplying about 60% of the market that has grown to 140 million tons. Much of the remaining supply has come from the US. However, a number of new suppliers are emerging who collectively will have an important impact on the future development of the trade. It is expected the seaborne steam coal trade will grow to about 220 million tons by 1995 and although Australia and South Africa are expected to supply half this tonnage, their ability to control the market will be significantly reduced. By this stage China could well be supplying 30 million tons per year, Colombia 25 million tons and Indonesia and Venezuela at least 6 million tons per year each. The importance of the emergence of these new suppliers will be at least as much psychological as factual as they are, or will behave as if they are, relatively low cost producers and this will increase the uncertainty of the traditional suppliers. This will tend to constrain prices more than perhaps pure economics would dictate. Although low cost the new producers still require a real increase in price. However, if Australia and South Africa are also to increase capacity, as it seems is necessary they will require a greater price rise and evidence that it is a lasting increase because the marginal mines in these countries are higher cost and by now the mine owners must be lacking confidence that they will ever be able to earn their target returns. It is not expected that prices will firm to the level required for the US to again become a major supplier. In this paper the author reviews the existing and expected costs of seaborne steam coal supply from Australia, China, Colombia and South Africa and the expected costs from Alaska, Indonesia and Venezuela.

• OSTI ID: 5434785
• Journal Information: Materials and Society; (United States), Journal Name: Materials and Society; (United States) Vol. 14:1; ISSN 0146-6399; ISSN MSOCD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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