Modeling the number of bids received on federal offshore hydrocarbon leases by poisson-type models

Technical Report · Thu May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1980

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5432422· OSTI ID:5432422

Nachtsheim, C J; Bruckner, L A

Since 1954, the federal government has held over 40 hydrocarbon lease sales on the Outer Continental Shelf. A maximum of 18 sealed bonus bids was received for each of the tracts offered. A mixed Poisson-type model has been suggested for the relative frequencies of the number of bids received by an offered tract. Here we show that statistically this model may only be supportable for the number of solo bids received in sales after the Joint-Bidding Ban of 1975. A truncated model (excluding tracts receiving no bids) is proposed. While an improvement results from the use of this model, it appears that models of the mixed Poisson-type may not be generally applicable to the number of bids data.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos Scientific Lab., NM (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 5432422
• Report Number(s): LA-8347-MS
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
03 NATURAL GAS
030600 -- Natural Gas-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
BIDS
CONTINENTAL MARGIN
CONTINENTAL SHELF
DATA
DATA FORMS
DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
EQUATIONS
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
INFORMATION
LEASES
LEASING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATHEMATICS
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
NUMERICAL DATA
OFFSHORE SITES
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
POISSON EQUATION
PROBABILITY
RESOURCES
STATISTICAL MODELS
STATISTICS
TABLES
THEORETICAL DATA