The slowdown of 1989--90: Further evidence for the use of transportation sector indicators to predict GNP growth
Conference
·
OSTI ID:5427788
Research on the interaction of energy cost shocks and macroeconomic activity one year later is reviewed and used to support a prediction that early 1989 increases in crude oil and gasoline prices will lead to declines of auto sales for each of the next three quarters, depressing macroeconomic growth rates in early 1990. Research on the interaction of major product group real cost changes and macroeconomic activity changes one year later is reviewed, showing that energy products are the only products for which statistical evidence supporting a negative interaction exists when using a full century of US data. The post 1929 interactions of various energy types are then examined, showing that gasoline is the fuel which has been responsible for the energy effect since that time. Literature is cited supporting the argument that declines in vehicle sales occur in response to gasoline price increases, and that declines in vehicle sales for the dominant vehicle producer predict GNP. A study showing that regulatory cost increases as well as gasoline price increases depress auto sales is cited. The unfortunate coincident timing of increases in the safety, emissions, and/or fuel economy regulatory costs of the automobile and gasoline price shocks at approximately the time of the last three US recessions is reviewed and compared to the 1989--90 situation. Factors which tend to support an expectation of further rises in crude oil and/or gasoline prices in 1990 are reviewed, and contrasted with those factors tending to support a soft landing'' scenario. 48 refs., 22 figs.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE/CE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 5427788
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-8909254-1; ON: DE90001982
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Discussion of the indicators used in developing an early and accurate judgemental prediction of weak recovery or depression
Energy-price dynamics and US depressions: recent analogies
Energy-price dynamics and US depressions: recent analogies
Conference
·
Thu Mar 31 23:00:00 EST 1983
·
OSTI ID:5952103
Energy-price dynamics and US depressions: recent analogies
Conference
·
Fri Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 1982
·
OSTI ID:5869319
Energy-price dynamics and US depressions: recent analogies
Conference
·
Fri Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 1982
·
OSTI ID:5974885