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Probability, convolutions, and distributions: EPRI monographs on simulation of electric power production

Technical Report ·
OSTI ID:5369132
 [1]
  1. Ohio Univ., Athens, OH (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy

Probability theory is approached analytically to derive and explain formulas of particular interest in planning and operating electric power generating systems. To do this, the convolution process for obtaining the probability distribution of the sum of random variables is discussed at length. The application in mind is forecasting production cost and reliability, taking into account random outages of generating units. A tutorial approach is taken to define empirical and formal probability and to introduce notation and terminology for describing probability distributions. Distribution parameters, properties, generating functions and use of cumulants instead of moments are presented. The theory or orthogonal function expansions and their application to probability problems is developed, starting with Fourier series and proceeding to novel perspectives. Gram-Charlier Type A Series, Hermite polynomials, Edgeworth expansion, Cornish-Fisher formulas and Laguerre polynomial expansions are analyzed and exemplified. The text includes illustrative exercises, a review of the literature and a bibliography of 138 references.

Research Organization:
Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Ohio Univ., Athens, OH (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy
Sponsoring Organization:
EPRI; Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
OSTI ID:
5369132
Report Number(s):
EPRI-IE-7508
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English