Review of seismic probabilistic risk assessment and the use of sensitivity analysis
This paper presents results of sensitivity reviews performed to address a range of questions which arise in the context of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). These questions are the subject of this paper. A seismic PRA involves evaluation of seismic hazard, component fragilities, and system responses. They are combined in an integrated analysis to obtain various risk measures, such as frequency of plant damage states. Calculation of these measures depends on combination of non-linear functions based on a number of parameters and assumptions used in the quantification process. Therefore, it is often difficult to examine seismic PRA results and derive useful insights from them if detailed sensitivity studies are absent. In a seismic PRA, sensitivity evaluations can be divided into three areas: hazard, fragility, and system modeling. As a part of the review of a standard boiling water reactor seismic PRA, a reassessment of the plant damage states frequency and a detailed sensitivity analysis were conducted. Seismic event trees and fault trees were developed to model the different system and plant accident sequences. Hazard curves which represent various sites on the east coast were obtained; alternate structure and equipment fragility data were postulated. Various combinations of hazard and fragility data were analyzed. In addition, system modeling was perturbed to examine the impact upon the final results. Orders of magnitude variation were observed in the plant damage state frequency among the different cases. 6 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA); Benjamin (J.R.) and Associates, Inc., Mountain View, CA (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC02-76CH00016
- OSTI ID:
- 5337963
- Report Number(s):
- BNL-NUREG-36773; CONF-8506188-2; ON: TI850160655
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
220900* -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Reactor Safety
EARTHQUAKES
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
REACTOR SAFETY
REACTORS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY
SEISMIC EFFECTS
SEISMIC EVENTS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
WATER COOLED REACTORS