Outlook for improved automobile fuel efficiency

Technical Report · Tue Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1982

OSTI ID:5326118

Ford, A; Sutherland, R J

The prospects of improved fuel efficiency in new cars through 1995 are analyzed. We estimate the costs of retooling and the optimal rate of retooling as a function of the price of gasoline and the discounted life of the car. With these estimates, and an econometric model of market shares of five car classes, we estimate that the average new fleet fuel efficiency will be 32 mpg in 1985 and about 39 mpg in 1995 if all car classes are optimally retooled. If only three of five car classes are retooled, the new car fleet should obtain 31 mpg in 1985, which exceeds the Government mandated 27.5 mpg. We examine three potential policies - differential pricing, gas guzzler tax, and a gasoline tax - in terms of their cost and effectiveness of shifting the mix in demand for new cars and thereby improving overall fuel economy. These policies would produce a large redistribution of expenditures, and only a moderate improvement in fuel efficiency would be achieved.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 5326118
• Report Number(s): LA-9414-MS; ON: DE82018349
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
291000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Conservation
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320203* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation-- Land & Roadway
AUTOMOBILES
COST
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
FUEL ECONOMY
FUELS
GASOLINE
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
LIQUID FUELS
OPTIMIZATION
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
SERVICE LIFE
TAXES
VEHICLES