Impact of uncertainty on long-range generation planning

Conference · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1976 · Proc. Am. Power Conf.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5270847

Garver, L L; Stoll, H G; Szczepanski, R S

Two short-term alternatives, capital conservation and oil conservation, have been compared with the traditional planning strategy of minimizing total revenue requirements. The comparison included five future economic conditions (business as usual and oil, nuclear, coal, and capital increases). The effect of these alternate strategies, while having beneficial short-term advantages, leads to significant disadvantages, up to $11 billion of additional revenue requirements in the event of adverse economic conditions. Short-term capital conservation, while achieving reduced new financing requirements from 1975 to 1980, ultimately leads to significant new financing requirements in the early to mid-1980s. It could also incur up to $11 billion of additional revenue requirements. Short-term oil conservation, while reducing the oil consumption in the mid-1980s by 30 percent, increases the new financing in the late 1970s by 25 percent. It could incur up to $9 billion additional revenue requirements. These alternative planning strategies, while having benefits under specific scenarios, when judged upon the basis of a broad range of fuel and capital scenarios display poorer characteristics under uncertainty than the traditional planning strategy of minimizing present-worth revenue requirements. Pressures for adopting short-range generation addition strategies are present in the economy. However, a balanced mix of planned generation emphasizing minimum costs best positions the utility industry to minimize the effects of fuel and capital supply uncertainties. If short-range generation addition strategies must be followed, there are significant incentives to minimize their degree and duration.

• Research Organization: General Electric Co., Schenectady, NY
• OSTI ID: 5270847
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Proc. Am. Power Conf.; (United States) Journal Volume: 38
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
CAPITAL
CONSUMPTION RATES
DECISION MAKING
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SOURCES
FINANCING
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUELS
INVESTMENT
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM
PLANNING
POWER
POWER GENERATION
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
USA