Modeling approaches to long-run integrated technological impact analysis

Technical Report · Sat Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1979

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5266972· OSTI ID:5266972

Groncki, P. J.

Analysis of the energy-economic-environmental impacts of energy policies, such as a major synthetic fuels program, requires methodologies that reflect the potential benefits and costs of proposed policy alternatives. Energy policies typically have secondary economic and environmental effects as well as direct effects on energy itself, and these must collectively be assessed to provide a complete basis for policy selection. The focus of this report is on approaches to the analysis of long-term impacts that may result from current decisions regarding energy policy. The interrelationships among the energy, economic, and environmental systems, and alternative ways of analyzing long-term impacts within an integrated framework are discussed. An application of such a framework to the assessment of a major synthetic fuels program is presented as an example. The use of idealized problem formulations is a necessary part of technology assessment, particularly in considering highly integrated policy issues, such as a synfuels policy. Nonquantifiable factors, such as equity, are not always considered in mathematical models. Model results should be viewed only as aids for decision making among policy alternatives, as they may not take into account all of the policy's implications. A decision maker must recognize the limitations to using model outputs and must use both experience and judgement in selecting policy alternatives for implementation. Use of an appropriate model structure with sufficient feedback capabilities will often provide a better overall policy assessment than a highly detailed but uncoordinated approach to the same problems.

• Research Organization: Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-76CH00016
• OSTI ID: 5266972
• Report Number(s): BNL-51126
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
295000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Hydrogen & Synthetic Fuels
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ENERGY ANALYSIS
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY POLICY
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
IMPLEMENTATION
INDUSTRY
SIMULATION
SYNTHETIC FUELS INDUSTRY
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION