Oil and gas policies in Tunisia: a macroeconomic analysis

Book · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1984

OSTI ID:5205077

Dinh, H T

The sustained economic growth that Tunisia enjoyed in the last decade is likely to be restrained in the 1980s by several factors related to its oil and gas resources. First, with no new major hydrocarbon discovery in sight and with rapidly increasing domestic consumption, the country will cease to be a net oil exporter by the end of the decade. Second, prospects for further substantial gains in the terms of trade due to oil price increase cannot be anticipated. This paper quantifies the impact of these two factors on the Tunisian economy and examines the macroeconomic implications of various policies in the oil and gas sector. The economy-wide impact is studied by the use of a macroeconomic model constructed on the basis of the specific structure of the Tunisian hydrocarbon sector and its linkages to the balance of payments and the budget. Based on a scenario of anticipated policy and development, it was found that a continuation of past trends in energy consumption would lead to large Government budget and balance of payments deficits. The paper examines other oil and gas policies to reverse this trend, including pricing, energy conservation, acceleration of exploration and development, as well as the development of large projects. The analysis, based on mid-1983 data, and on assumptions which are tentative in character, shows that to limit the balance of payments deficit to a sustainable level in the long term, energy conservation measures must be taken.

• OSTI ID: 5205077
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
021000* -- Petroleum-- Legislation & Regulations
03 NATURAL GAS
031000 -- Natural Gas-- Legislation & Regulations
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
293000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Policy
Legislation
& Regulation
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
294003 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Natural Gas
AFRICA
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
TUNISIA