Radioactive fallout projections and arms control agreements: INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces) and START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)
Projections of levels of radioactive fallout from a nuclear war are sensitive to assumptions about the structure of the nuclear stockpiles as well as the assumed scenarios for a nuclear war. Recent arms control proposals would change these parameters. This paper examines the implications of the proposed (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces) INF treaty and (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) START on fallout projections from a major nuclear war. We conclude that the INF reductions are likely to have negligible effects on estimates of global and local fallout, whereas the START reductions could result in reductions in estimates of local fallout that range from significant to dramatic, depending upon the nature of the reduced strategic forces. Should a major war occur, projections of total fatalities from direct effects of blast, thermal radiation, a nd fallout, and the phenomenon known as nuclear winter, would not be significantly affected by INF and START initiatives as now drafted. 14 refs.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 5188103
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-98234; CONF-880367-1; ON: DE88007420
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: SCOPE-ENUWAR workshop on the environmental consequences of nuclear war, Moscow, USSR, 20 Mar 1988
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
ARMS CONTROL
INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
GLOBAL FALLOUT
C CODES
FISSION PRODUCTS
G CODES
MISSILE LAUNCHING SITES
MISSILE SILOS
MISSILES
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
NUCLEAR WINTER
RADIATION DOSES
RADIOISOTOPES
STOCKPILES
TREATIES
WARFARE
AGREEMENTS
COMPUTER CODES
DOSES
FALLOUT
ISOTOPES
MATERIALS
RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
WEAPONS
350101* - Arms Control- Policy
Negotiations
& Legislation- Treaties- (1987-)
450202 - Explosions & Explosives- Nuclear- Weaponry- (-1989)