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U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Implications of the stochastic approach to air-quality regulations

Conference ·
OSTI ID:5180456
Existing air quality regulations require that specified values for emissions rates and ground-level concentrations never be exceeded or exceeded at most once during one year. Such requirements are major factors influencing the manner in which fossil-fueled power plants are designed and operated. Recently proposed regulatory revisions or regulatory enforcement procedures recognize the inevitable variability in plant emissions and suggest either a stochastic approach to air quality modeling or longer averaging times in the calculation of emission rates. The result of such a revision would be greater flexibility in power plant design and operation. However, such changes could result in significant alterations in long-term pollutant loading to the atmosphere and in short-term ground-level pollutant concentrations. The extent of these impacts depend, to a large extent, upon three emission parameters: the mean emission rate, the emission rate variance, and the time-wise emission rate correlation. This paper investigates the influence of these important parameters on the probability of violating certain air quality standards. The findings presented in this paper suggest that defining compliance in a probabilistic sense has merit, while the use of longer averaging periods will encourage increases in pollutant emissions along with biasing enforcement priorities.
Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
DOE Contract Number:
W-7405-ENG-26
OSTI ID:
5180456
Report Number(s):
CONF-820627-9; ON: DE82017446
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English