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Title: EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

Abstract

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projects are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region.

Publication Date:
Research Org.:
USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
515502
Report Number(s):
DOE/EIA-M-063(97)
ON: DE97005071; NC: NONE; TRN: AHC29718%%16
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: Jan 1997
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY; PETROLEUM; NATURAL GAS; ENERGY SUPPLIES; ENERGY MODELS; PRODUCTION; FORECASTING; DOMESTIC SUPPLIES; IMPORTS; EXPORTS; COMPUTER PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION; O CODES

Citation Formats

NONE. EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM). United States: N. p., 1997. Web. doi:10.2172/515502.
NONE. EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM). United States. doi:10.2172/515502.
NONE. 1997. "EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)". United States. doi:10.2172/515502. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/515502.
@article{osti_515502,
title = {EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)},
author = {NONE},
abstractNote = {The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projects are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region.},
doi = {10.2172/515502},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 1997,
month = 1
}

Technical Report:

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  • The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The Documentation for the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) provides a complete description of the OGSM methodology, structure, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developers Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation. This report provides an overview of the model and an assessment of the sensitivity of OGSM results to changes in input data or parameters.
  • The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports andmore » exports by entry region.« less
  • The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2)). Projected production estimates of U.S. crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling Systemmore » (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects U.S. domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.« less
  • The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is tomore » produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.« less
  • The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gasmore » recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian/Antrim shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted profitability to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.« less