Actinide partitioning-transmutation program final report. VII. Long-term risk analysis of the geologic repository

Technical Report · Mon Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1980

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5148935· OSTI ID:5148935

Logan, S E; Conarty, R L; Ng, H S; Rahal, L J; Shirley, C G

This report supports the overall assessment by Oak Ridge National Laboratory of actinide partitioning and transmutation by providing an analysis of the long-term risks associated with the terminal storage of wastes from a fuel cycle which incorporates partitioning and transmutation (P-T) and wastes from a cycle which does not. The system model and associated computer code, called AMRAW (Assessment Method for Radioactive Waste), are used for the analysis and are applied to the Los Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico. Because a conservative approach is used throughout, calculated results are believed to be consistently higher than reasonable expectations from actual disruptive incidents at the site and therefore are not directly suited for comparison with other analyses of the particular geologic location. The assessment is made with (1) the probabilistic, or risk, mode that uses combinations of reasonable possible release incidents with their probability of occurrence distributed and applied throughout the assessment period, and (2) the consequence mode that forces discrete release events to occur at specific times. An assessment period of 1 million years is used. The principal results are: (1) In all but the expulsive modes, /sup 99/Tc and /sup 129/I completely dominate cumulative effects based on their transport to man through leaching and movement with groundwater, effecting about 33,000 health effects (deaths) over the 1 million years; (2) P-T has only limited effectiveness in reducing long-term risk from a radionuclide waste repository under the conditions studied, and such effectiveness is essentially confined to the extremely unlikely (probability of occurrence 10/sup -12//year) expulsive events; (3) Removal or immobilization of /sup 99/Tc and /sup 129/I might provide benefits sufficiently tangible to warrant special consideration.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos Technical Associates, Inc., NM (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 5148935
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-6987
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

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11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
A CODES
ACTINIDES
ANIMALS
BETA DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
BETA-MINUS DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
COMPUTER CODES
CONTAMINATION
DATA
DISSOLUTION
DOSE COMMITMENTS
DOSE RATES
ELEMENTS
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
FORECASTING
GROUND WATER
HAZARDS
HEALTH HAZARDS
HOURS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES
HYDROGEN COMPOUNDS
INFORMATION
INTERMEDIATE MASS NUCLEI
INTERNAL CONVERSION RADIOISOTOPES
IODINE 129
IODINE ISOTOPES
ISOMERIC TRANSITION ISOTOPES
ISOTOPES
LEACHING
MAMMALS
MAN
MANAGEMENT
MASS TRANSFER
METALS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEI
NUMERICAL DATA
ODD-EVEN NUCLEI
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PARTITION
PRIMATES
PROCESSING
RADIATION HAZARDS
RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS
RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL
RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES
RADIOACTIVE WASTE PROCESSING
RADIOACTIVE WASTES
RADIOISOTOPES
RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
SEPARATION PROCESSES
TECHNETIUM 99
TECHNETIUM ISOTOPES
THEORETICAL DATA
TRANSMUTATION
UNDERGROUND DISPOSAL
VERTEBRATES
WASTE DISPOSAL
WASTE MANAGEMENT
WASTE PROCESSING
WASTES
WATER
YEARS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES