Canadian nuclear power plant construction cost forecast and analysis

Conference · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1985 · Trans. Am. Nucl. Soc.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5096298

Keng, C W.K.

Because of the huge volume of capital required to construct a modern electric power generating station, investment decisions have to be made with as complete an understanding of the consequence of the decision as possible. This understanding must be provided by the evaluation of the situation to take place in the future. This paper attempts to use an econometric method to forecast the construction costs escalation of a standard Canadian nuclear generating station (NGS). A review of the history of Canadian nuclear electric power is provided. The major components of the construction costs of a Canadian NGS are studied and summarized. A data base is built and indexes are prepared. Based on these indexes an econometric forecasting model is constructed using an apparently new econometric methodology of forecasting modelling. Forecasts for a period of forty years are generated and applications of alternative scenario forecasts and range forecasts to uncertainty assessment are demonstrated. The indexes, the model, and the forecasts and their applications, to the best of the author's knowledge, are the very first ever done for Canadian NGS constructions.

• Research Organization: Ontario Hydro, Toronto
• OSTI ID: 5096298
• Report Number(s): CONF-850514-
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Trans. Am. Nucl. Soc.; (United States) Journal Volume: 49, Suppl. 1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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