Modeling demand for public transit services in rural areas

Journal Article · Thu May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1997 · Journal of Transportation Engineering

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1997)123:3(216)· OSTI ID:509335

Attaluri, P; Seneviratne, P N; Javid, M ^[1]

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1. Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Accurate estimates of demand are critical for planning, designing, and operating public transit systems. Previous research has demonstrated that the expected demand in rural areas is a function of both demographic and transit system variables. Numerous models have been proposed to describe the relationship between the aforementioned variables. However, most of them are site specific and their validity over time and space is not reported or perhaps has not been tested. Moreover, input variables in some cases are extremely difficult to quantify. In this article, the estimation of demand using the generalized linear modeling technique is discussed. Two separate models, one for fixed-route and another for demand-responsive services, are presented. These models, calibrated with data from systems in nine different states, are used to demonstrate the appropriateness and validity of generalized linear models compared to the regression models. They explain over 70% of the variation in expected demand for fixed-route services and 60% of the variation in expected demand for demand-responsive services. It was found that the models are spatially transferable and that data for calibration are easily obtainable.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 509335
• Journal Information: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Journal Name: Journal of Transportation Engineering Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 123; ISSN JTPEDI; ISSN 0733-947X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
DEMAND
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
ROUTING
RURAL AREAS
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS