Understanding the dynamics of water availability and use in China
This report presents the preliminary results of an analysis of China`s water resources, part of an effort undertaken by the National Intelligence Council Medea scientists to improve the understanding of future food production and consumption in the People`s Republic of China. A dynamic water model was developed to simulate the hydrological budgetary processes in five river drainage basins located in northeastern, central, and southern China: the Chang Jiang (Yangtse River), Huanghe (Yellow River), Haihe, Huaihe, and Liaohe. The model was designed to assess the effects of changes in urban, industrial, and agricultural water use requirements on the availability of water in each basin and to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in China through the year 2025. The model imposes a sustainable yield constraint, that is, groundwater extraction is not allowed to exceed the sustainable yield; if the available water does not meet the total water use requirements, a deficit results. An agronomic model was also developed to generate projections of the water required to service China`s agricultural sector and compare China`s projected grain production with projected grain consumption requirements to estimate any grain surplus and/or deficit. In future refinements, the agronomic model will interface directly with the water model to provide for the exchange of information on projected water use requirements and available water. The preliminary results indicate that the Chang Jiang basin will have a substantial surplus of water through 2025 and that the Haihe basin is in an ongoing situation. The agricultural water use requirements based on grain production indicate that an agricultural water deficit in the Haihe basin begins before the onset of the modeling period (1980) and steadily worsens through 2025. This assumption is confirmed by reports that groundwater mining is already under way in the most intensely cultivated and populated areas of northern China.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Financial Management and Controller, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 508107
- Report Number(s):
- SAND--97-1626; ON: DE97007939
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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