Future trends in international terrorism

Technical Report · Sun Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:5064087

Jenkins,

This survey offers a depressing but conservative view of future trends in terrorism. Terrorism persists. It may double in volume, but the world does not end in terrorist anarchy. Few changes are foreseen in terrorist tactics or targets. Terrorists will escalate their violence, their attacks will become more indiscriminate, we may see political demands based upon threats of food contamination, but terrorists probably will not enter the Armageddon world of mass destruction. Terrorism will become institutionalized as a mode of armed conflict for some, no less legitimate than other modes of conflict. The media will increase its ability to cover terrorist incidents; we will see even more terrorism. The extraordinary security measures taken against terrorism will have become a permanent part of the landscape, of our life style. They will no longer attract comment. That may be the most insidious and perhaps the most worrisome development in the coming years. Terrorism will become an accepted fact of contemporary life--commonplace, ordinary, banal, and therefore somehow tolerable.

• Research Organization: RAND Corp., Santa Monica, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5064087
• Report Number(s): AD-A-170433/7/XAB; RAND-P-7176
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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