Comparative assessment of five long-run energy projections

Technical Report · Sat Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1979

OSTI ID:5044540

Five major long-term energy forecasts are compared for a single common scenario. The five models used were: Stanford University's PILOT model; Alan S. Manne's ETA-MACRO model; the Brookhaven National Laboratory/Dale W. Jorgenson Associates (BNL/DJA) energy economy model system; and two Energy Information Administration models, FOSSIL2 (1978) and the Long-range Energy Analysis Package energy model ARC-78 (LEAP). The models provide for assessments of future liquid fuel utilization; continued oil imports; and growth of electric power generation provided by increased nuclear power, greater reliance on coal resources for direct combustion, synfuels production, and electric generation. The models differ on the timing and growth of the synfuel industries; the details of energy end-use in the alternative methodologies; and the energy-GNP ratios. After summarizing the method and preparation of each forecast, the report compares the results in detail and explains the differences both in terms of data assumptions and methodological approach. 19 tables, 29 figures.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 5044540
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA/CR-0016-2
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
IMPORTS
INDUSTRY
LIQUID FUELS
NUCLEAR POWER
PETROLEUM
POWER
POWER GENERATION
PRODUCTION
PROJECTION SERIES
SYNTHETIC FUELS INDUSTRY