Uncertainty in predictions of fallout radionuclides in foods and of subsequent ingestion

Journal Article · Fri Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1989 · Health Physics; (USA)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1097/00004032-198912000-00009· OSTI ID:5030920

Breshears, D D; Kirchner, T B; Otis, M D; Whicker, F W ^[1]

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1. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins (USA)

Uncertainty in predictions from the PATHWAY food-chain model was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty estimates, measured by the geometric standard deviation (GSD), were obtained for median values of time-integrated concentrations of {sup 131}I, {sup 136}Cs, and {sup 137}Cs in foods and for the corresponding time-integrated intakes resulting from ingestion of all foods. The GSDs associated with a given food for the two short-lived radionuclides, {sup 131}I and {sup 136}Cs, were not significantly different, but they differed from the GSDs for the longer-lived radionuclide. The GSDs for integrated concentrations of radionuclides in milk varied with the time of year fallout was deposited, but uncertainty for nondairy products was relatively independent of the date of fallout deposition. The estimated GSDs were applied to other radionuclides of interest based on physical half-life and ranged from 1.7 to 2.7 for time-integrated intake across all foods for radionuclides with physical half-lives less than 30 d, from 1.8 to 2.3 for half-lives ranging from 30 to 500 d, and from 1.9 to 2.1 when half-lives were greater than 500 d.

• OSTI ID: 5030920
• Journal Information: Health Physics; (USA), Journal Name: Health Physics; (USA) Vol. 57:6; ISSN 0017-9078; ISSN HLTPA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

560162* -- Radionuclide Effects
Kinetics
& Toxicology-- Animals
Plants
Microorganisms
& Cells
63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
ALKALI METAL ISOTOPES
ANIMAL FEEDS
ANIMALS
BETA DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
BETA-MINUS DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
BIOLOGICAL HALF-LIFE
CATTLE
CESIUM 136
CESIUM 137
CESIUM ISOTOPES
CONTAMINATION
DAYS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES
DIET
DOMESTIC ANIMALS
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
FALLOUT
FOOD
FOOD CHAINS
INGESTION
INTAKE
INTERMEDIATE MASS NUCLEI
IODINE 131
IODINE ISOTOPES
ISOTOPES
MAMMALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MILK PRODUCTS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NUCLEI
ODD-EVEN NUCLEI
ODD-ODD NUCLEI
RADIOECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
RADIOISOTOPES
RUMINANTS
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
VERTEBRATES
YEARS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES