skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

Abstract

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studies of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-termmore » forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
481539
Report Number(s):
PNNL-11511
ON: DE97052026; TRN: AHC29712%%81
DOE Contract Number:
AC06-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: Feb 1997
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
99 MATHEMATICS, COMPUTERS, INFORMATION SCIENCE, MANAGEMENT, LAW, MISCELLANEOUS; INDUSTRIAL PLANTS; CAPACITY; US DOD; PLANNING; EMERGENCY PLANS; NATURAL DISASTERS; NATIONAL DEFENSE

Citation Formats

Belzer, D.B.. Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005. United States: N. p., 1997. Web. doi:10.2172/481539.
Copy to clipboard
Belzer, D.B.. Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005. United States. doi:10.2172/481539.
Copy to clipboard
Belzer, D.B.. Sat . "Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005". United States. doi:10.2172/481539. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/481539.
Copy to clipboard
@article{osti_481539,
title = {Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005},
author = {Belzer, D.B.},
abstractNote = {To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studies of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.},
doi = {10.2172/481539},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 1997},
month = {Sat Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 1997}
}
Copy to clipboard
Technical Report:
View Technical Report (4.87 MB)
DOI:  10.2172/481539
Save / Share:
Export Metadata
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.

  • ; ;
    Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner to allow evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key nonmanufacturing sectors. This volume lays out the general concepts and methods used to develop the emergency operating estimates. The historical analysis of capacity extends from 1974 throughmore » 1986. Some nonmanufacturing industries are included. In addition to mining and utilities, key industries in transportation, communication, and services were analyzed. Physical capacity and efficiency of production were measured. 3 refs., 2 figs., 12 tabs. (JF)« less

  • ; ;
    Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner that allows evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study, conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key non-manufacturing sectors. This volume presents tabular and graphical results of the historical analysis and projections for each SIC industry. (JF)

  • ; ; ; ...
    During the last 20 years, utilities and researchers have begun to understand the value in the collection and analysis of interruption cost data. The continued investigation of the monetary impact of power outages will facilitate the advancement of the analytical methods used to measure the costs and benefits from the perspective of the energy consumer. More in-depth analysis may be warranted because of the privatization and deregulation of power utilities, price instability in certain regions of the U.S. and the continued evolution of alternative auxiliary power systems.

  • ; ;
    This study used two different models to analyze a number of alternative scenarios of annual wind power capacity expansion to better understand the impacts of high levels of wind generated electricity production on wind energy manufacturing and installation rates.