Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

Technical Report · Sat Feb 01 04:00:00 EST 1997

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/481539· OSTI ID:481539

Belzer, D B

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studies of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC06-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 481539
• Report Number(s): PNNL--11511; ON: DE97052026
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
CAPACITY
EMERGENCY PLANS
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
NATIONAL DEFENSE
NATURAL DISASTERS
PLANNING
US DOD