Estimates of the Kill Probability in Target Area Family Shelters
Single-shot kill probabilities for persons with specified degrees of protection within a target area were calculated as a guide in the choice of family emergency planning and, specifically, to compare the safety of underground shelters versus basement fallout shelters. Probabilities were estimated by relating the calculated lethal radii for various weapon yields and the distance from the target point to a currert ICBM aiming error. Curves were constructed showing kill probability at varying distances from the target point for selected megaton yields with specified degrees of protection. For example, a comparison showed that a person 4 miles from a 5-megaton ICBM target point would have a 97% risk of being killed within a basement fallout shelter, or an 8% risk within the specified underground shelter. The Office of Civil Defense family fallout shelter constructed in basements with 8-in., unreinforced concrete blocks was selected for analysis because its design has been so widely distributed. Certain fatality would occur in this shelter at a peak over-pressure of 10 psi, and it would collapse at approximately 3 psi. The underground shelter selected for analysis was one which would withstand 30 psi peak overpressure, and would have radiation shielding equivalent to 12 in. of concrete plus 30 in. of earth. (H.H.D.)
- Research Organization:
- Wichita Clinic, Kan.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- NSA Number:
- NSA-17-006345
- OSTI ID:
- 4736061
- Journal Information:
- JAMA, Journal of the American Medical Association, Journal Name: JAMA, Journal of the American Medical Association Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 180; ISSN 0098-7484
- Country of Publication:
- Country unknown/Code not available
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
DESIGN MODIFICATIONS AND 1962 COST ANALYSIS FOR A STANDARDIZED SERIES OF FALLOUT SHELTERS
EFFECTS OF AT ATOMIC EXPLOSION ON GROUP AND FAMILY TYPE SHELTERS