Prediction of climate variability and projection of climate change
The years since 1985 have seen rapid progress in climate research. By the implementation of a new observing system in the Tropical Pacific Ocean combined with the development of adapted coupled ocean-atmosphere models the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) led to the breakthrough to physically-based climate predictions. For most of the tropics and partly extending to mid-latitudes, climate anomalies can now be predicted for the next season and in some places even for the next year. On the other hand, global coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models have recently approached natural climate variability on time-scales to several decades to such an extent, that these models, partly validated with data from the past, became useful for answering the following two questions: Has mankind already changed global climate? Is anthropogenic global climate change, in the coming century, surmounting at least all variability observed during the last 10,000 years? Both questions are answered by yes. For the first question, the observed patterns of warming and cooling with respect to geographical, seasonal and vertical dependence can only be explained by a combined action of global greenhouse gas increase, regional sulfate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone depletion. For the second, even low climate sensitivity and low economic growth, will lead, if no measures are taken, to a mean global warming of 1.0 C, thus surmounting the warmest phase of the holocene. Implications of these findings for the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will also be discussed.
- OSTI ID:
- 470947
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-960420--; ISBN 0-884736-02-5
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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