Likelihood of mid-cycle shutdown due to steam generator tube leak
- Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
This analysis estimated the likelihood of a mid-cycle shutdown at a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR) due to a steam generator (SG) tube leak. The source of the analytic data was eddy-current test (ECT) measurements of SG tube defect depths from the three most recent inspections. Statistical analyses of these data in conjunction with probabilistic modeling via computer simulation yielded estimates of the likelihood of at least one SG tube leak during mid-cycle (thereby forcing shutdown). Projections for the current cycle indicated probabilities ranging from 0.0030-0.12, based on medians, and 0.060-0.19, based on means, depending on the combination of selected models. A likelihood of {approximately}0.1 was reasonably characteristic, with the highest mean probability projected at {approximately}0.2, sufficient to warrant caution by the PWR operator for continued operation to the end of the current cycle without costly shutdown for a mid-cycle ECT inspection.
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC06-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 459195
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-950420--
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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