The bear awakens: Resurgence of FSU oil and gas
- Foreman (Neil E.), Houston, TX (United States)
Since dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in late 1991, the oil and gas industries in the 15 component nations have been in a state of turmoil. As a result, oil and gas output has fallen dramatically among the Former Soviet Union`s (FSU) oil- and gas-producing republics, 11 of which flow volumes significant enough to forecast. This situation is predicted to reverse vigorously over the next decade. These projects are part of two Petroconsultants global forecasts, both released during the summer of 1996. The studies incorporated separate oil and gas production forecasts--predicted independently by onshore and offshore sectors-for each of the world`s significant producing nations over the 1996--2005 period. These predictions employed a unified, coupled supply-demand approach that examined both domestic and world market conditions. Central to the supply-side methodology was full-cycle resource analysis of production and discovery--that is, evaluating both the geologically-determined estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of hydrocarbons and the phasing of exploration and production, including field sizes, undiscovered reserves, etc., relative to the EUR. Thus, production was tracked as a continuum from the beginning of discovery through the forecast period. The demand-side methodology included analyses of several parameters, including consumption levels and sectoral patterns, primary energy balances, and export/import conditions, among others. A number of economic, political, infrastructure, historical, and other pertinent factors that bear on production also were incorporated into both supply and demand projections.
- OSTI ID:
- 435736
- Journal Information:
- World Oil, Vol. 218, Issue 2; Other Information: DN: Paper presented at the 1996 SPE annual technical conference and exhibition, Denver, CO (US), October 6--9, 1996; PBD: Feb 1997
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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