Probabilistic model for estimating the operating cost of an electric power generating system
From nuclear utilities planning methods symposium; Chattanooga, Tennessee (16 Jan 1974). In collection of papers presented at the nuclear utilities planning methods symposium. The concept of using a probabilistic simulation for estimatmg the operating cost of generating plants within an electrical utility was first introduced in 1967, and has recently been gaining acceptance in the United Stetes. Basically, the probabilistic simulation technique develops the cost of operating a uttlity system over an extended period of time by forecastmg the power to be generated by each plant. The basic model for this technique requires the following information: system load duration curve, loading order of units, generating unit characteristics, and energy supplied by energy-limited units such as hydroelectric units. The major advantage of the technique is its capability for simulating the effects of random events such as unit forced-outages. The basic probabilistic simulation model and modifications that have been made to represent more effectively the operation of large thermal units Wring low load periods and to take into consideration the effect of hydroelectric and pumped-storage units are presented. The model is versatile and can be modified easily. Computation times have averaged between 0.001 and 0.01 sec/unit on an IBM 360/91 computer with a memory requirement of approximately 80 K bytes. The probabtlistic simulation model is used as a subroutine for estimating operating costs in conjunction with optimization techniques for studying utility planning problems. (6 references) (auth)
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN; comps.; Oak Ridge National Lab., Tenn. (USA)
- NSA Number:
- NSA-29-020312
- OSTI ID:
- 4332393
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL-TM-4443
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Nuclear utilities planning methods symposium, Chattanooga, Tennessee, 16 Jan 1974; Other Information: Orig. Receipt Date: 30-JUN-74; Related Information: Collection of papers presented at the nuclear utilities planning methods symposium
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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