Obtaining realistic exposure estimates around hot spots using probabilistic uncertainty analysis: An elk foraging model
- Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Denver, CO (United States)
Screening level risk assessments for both human health and ecological receptors conducted using chemical concentrations found at hot spots often overestimate exposure and risk when the exposure area is larger than the hot spot. Making reasonable remedial decisions is difficult when risk is overestimated. Alternate methods of estimating exposure concentrations such as averaging over the area of the site may over or underestimate exposure. The authors have developed a Monte Carlo application to simulate probable large herbivore exposures to stack emissions deposited on forage under different time scenarios. The method generates a distribution of probable exposure concentrations assuming the herbivore may wander off the unfenced site and combines this with literature-based distributions of forage intake and exposure area estimates. Application of the model to realistic data sets shows that under some circumstances, when hot spot concentration exceed trigger levels, it can be shown that actual exposures are not likely to exceed trigger levels, and that if exceedances occur, they are unlikely to have significant impacts on the exposed population. If risk is excessive, remedial alternatives can be evaluated to see if they achieve acceptable risk levels. The method potentially has wide application in human and ecological risk assessments when hot spots are smaller than exposure areas for either individuals or populations.
- OSTI ID:
- 42894
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9410273-; TRN: IM9521%%58
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 15. annual meeting of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), Denver, CO (United States), 30 Oct - 3 Nov 1994; Other Information: PBD: 1994; Related Information: Is Part Of Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 15th annual meeting: Abstract book. Ecological risk: Science, policy, law, and perception; PB: 286 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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