Effect of standard of living on energy consumption and the CO{sub 2} greenhouse effect
- Hung Kuang Inst. of Nursing and Medical Technology, Taichung (Taiwan, Province of China)
- New Jersey Inst. of Technology, Newark, NJ (United States)
Per capita energy growth patterns were lumped into 6 global regions of similar sociopolitical background, and used to project the rate of growth of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The 6 key global regions specifically considered were: (1) North America (U.S. and Canada) [NA], (2) Middle East (North Africa and Persian Gulf States) [ME], (3) Commonwealth of Independent States and Eastern Europe [CISEE], (4) China and other centrally planned Asiatic economies [CPAE], (5) Industrialized Countries (including Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Japan, and South Africa) [IC], (6) Less Developed Countries (including all of South and Central America, Central Africa, and the rest of Asia) [LDC]. LDC population will grow 2.7 times from 50 to 67% of world population from 1990 to 2100. Over the same period, world population will grow from 5.2 to 11.9 billion people, and energy use from 15 to 60 TW. LDC energy use will grow disproportionately faster from 20 to 40%, and that in IC will slow from 30 to 22% of world energy. Data on the gross domestic product (GDP) from the World Bank were used as surrogates for standard of living (SOL) to relate world energy consumption with SOL. Per capita energy consumption varied linearly with per capita GDP for the LDC, but was independent of GDP for IC. The per capita energy consumption was multiplied by the population to project the total world energy consumption. We projected that non-fossil energy sources consisting mostly of nuclear energy will overtake fossil energy consisting mostly of coal derived products in the year 2075. The growth of CO{sub 2} emissions from 6 to 18.2 GtC/a will result in an average global temperature increase of 3{degrees}C due to this source only. However, CO{sub 2} is only about half the problem. When all infrared absorbing gases are considered, an average increase of 5.6 {degrees}C is projected for 2100. 7 figs., 1 tab.
- OSTI ID:
- 416443
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-960730-; TRN: 96:006485-0051
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 5. world congress of chemical engineering, San Diego, CA (United States), 14-18 Jul 1996; Other Information: PBD: 1996; Related Information: Is Part Of The 5th World Congress of chemical engineering: Technologies critical to a changing world. Volume I: Advanced fundamentals sustainable chemical engineering technology management and transfer international regulations; PB: 1183 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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