IMPROVEMENT OF PROTECTION DATA BASE FOR DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND DATA BASE ON SHELTER NEEDS. Final Report. Volume I
The procedures devised for using the National Fallout Shelter Survey (NFSS) data in damage-assessment systems and civil defense systems evaluation are reviewed. A procedure for using NFSS data in existing damage-assessment systems is devised, programmed for the UNIVAC 1105, and tested in the Jumbo III system of the National Resource Evaluation Center. Test results, using a single attack pattern and Phase 1 NFSS data, show significant fallout casualty reductions over previous estimates. Category l shelter (PF 20 to 39) contributes substantially to this reduction. The results also show fallout casualties to be quite sensitive to the movement-to-shelter assumption. Casualty results from a test assuming country-wide population mobility are significantly less than those obtained when movement is limited to within a standard location. A transportation problem formulation is used to simulate the movement of people to shelter within a city. The solution to the problem when so formulated allocates people to shelter in a manner to maximize survivors (or other objective functions). Tests over a range of fallout environments using this information show that the minimum fatality allocation to shelter is particularly sensitive to fallout build-up, movement through fallout, and shelter PF's. An equivalent residual dose (ERD) model which computes ERD in a time-varying radiation environment is programmed for the IBM 1620 and 7072. It has been found that the peak ERD after emergence may exceed the peak ERD in the initia1 shelter. The shelter allocation model and the peak ERD model form the basis for the Mainline Computer Program, a procedure for computing the survivors added by alternative CD system improvements. This program is currently being developed into a working tool for CD systems evaluation. (auth)
- Research Organization:
- Research Triangle Inst., Durham, N.C.
- DOE Contract Number:
- OCD-OS-62-144
- NSA Number:
- NSA-18-014102
- OSTI ID:
- 4084655
- Report Number(s):
- AD-428008
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Orig. Receipt Date: 31-DEC-64
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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