Reliability prediction of corroding pipelines

Conference · Sun Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1996

OSTI ID:400947

Strutt, J E; Allsopp, K; Newman, D; Trille, C ^[1]

---

1. Cranfield Univ. (United Kingdom)

Recent data collection studies relating to loss of containment of pipeline and risers indicate that corrosion is now the dominant failure mode for steel pipelines in the North Sea area. As the North Sea pipeline infrastructure ages, it is expected that the proportion of pipelines failing by corrosion will increase further and this raises the question of the relationship between probability of pipeline corrosion failure and the reliability of the corrosion control and monitoring systems used by operators to prevent corrosion failures. This paper describes a methodology for predicting the probability of corrosion failure of a specific submarine pipeline or riser system. The paper illustrates how the model can be used to predict the safe life of a pipeline, given knowledge of the underlying corrosion behavior and corrosion control system and how the time to failure can be updated in the light of inspection and monitoring results enabling inspection policy to be evaluated for its impact on risk. The paper also shows how different assumptions concerning the underlying cause of failure influences the estimation of the probability of failure.

• OSTI ID: 400947
• Report Number(s): CONF-9606279--; ISBN 0-7918-1494-7
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
03 NATURAL GAS
CORROSION
CORROSION PROTECTION
FAILURES
FORECASTING
MARINE RISERS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NORTH SEA
PIPELINES
SERVICE LIFE