Strategic forum. Number 71. Escalating tensions in south Asia
Policymakers in both India and Pakistan have concluded that the potential capability to develop and deploy nuclear weapons serves their national security and political interests. International efforts to reverse these conclusions are unlikely to succeed, particularly if these initiatives center on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) regime. The present state of tension and the ambiguous balance of nuclear capabilities and ballistic missiles between India and Pakistan is not sustainable over the long-term because deterrence could break down in a crisis. Nuclear armed missiles could be deployed or even used, by one or both parties, perhaps for pre-emptive purposes. Even without a crisis, escalating domestic and regional tensions may lead India and Pakistan into declared nuclear weapons programs. A nuclear arms race, analogous in nature (but not in magnitude) to that between the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, could follow. Traditional global arms control regimes cannot address the problem. A new security approach by the United States and other concerned governments is warranted one that freezes the weapons programs of these de facto nuclear powers at current levels by mutual agreement with international assurances. As the first step toward constructing a new regional approach to South Asian security this could avoid nuclear weapons escalation in the near term, and might eventually lead these two countries to agree to accede to international non-proliferation regimes.
- Research Organization:
- National Defense Univ., Washington, DC (United States). Inst. for National Strategic Studies
- OSTI ID:
- 370986
- Report Number(s):
- AD-A--308743/4/XAB
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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