Estimating the environmental and economic effects of widespread residential PV adoption using GIS and NEMS

Conference · Wed Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1997

OSTI ID:355794

Marnay, C; Richey, R C; Mahler, S A; Markel, R J ^[1]

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1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

This paper describes a study of the national effects of widespread adoption of grid-connected residential roof-top photovoltaic (PV) systems. A Geographic Information System (GIS) model is used to estimate potential PV system adoption and PV electricity generation and the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used to estimate the national effects of PV electricity generation. Adoption is assumed to occur if levelized PV system cost is less than the local average retail electricity rate at a county-level. The estimate of the current best scenario (defined in 1994 dollars by a 6.5% real interest rate, 30 year loan life, $6/W system cost, and $4/month voluntary premium) results in no adoption. The authors model several scenarios designed to stimulate PV adoption. As an example, if PV system costs are instead assumed to be $3/W, roof-top systems are found to be cost effective in 16% of detached single-family households in the US. By 2015 (assuming full adoption of 4 kW systems), this results in 82.1 TWh of annual PV electricity generation, 1709 TWh of avoided electricity transmission, distribution, and generation (TD and G) losses, 6 Mt/a of avoided carbon emissions, 50 kt/a of avoided NOx emissions, and 27.3 GW of avoided electricity generating capacity in place.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC03-76SF00098
• OSTI ID: 355794
• Report Number(s): CONF-970441--; ISBN 0-89553-169-0
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
COST ESTIMATION
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ENERGY MODELS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FORECASTING
INFORMATION SYSTEMS
INTERCONNECTED POWER SYSTEMS
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SUPPLIES
RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS