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Title: Theoretical models of the impact of climate change on natural populations, communities and ecosystems. Final report, 1989--1992

Abstract

Land use change is a relatively understudied aspect of global change. In many cases, the impact of land use on plant and animal species may be far greater than the impact of climate change per se. As an integral part of our long-term studies of the response of animal populations to global change, we have focused on land use change as a dominant driving force. Climate change, no doubt, will also play a role in determining the future abundance and distribution of many species, but, for many species, the signal from climate change per se may be difficult to detect if we do not first understand the impact of land use change. This formed the dominant theme of the research by the PI (Pulliam). Both land use change and year to year climate change can directly affect other populations and two examples of this formed the focus of the remaining research, models of invertebrates in Carolina Bays and a model of a commercial estuarine population of blue crabs.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Georgia Univ., Athens, GA (United States). Research Foundation
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
34451
Report Number(s):
DOE/ER/60881-T2
ON: DE95008721
DOE Contract Number:
FG09-89ER60881
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: [1992]
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS; LAND USE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; BIRDS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; SPECIES DIVERSITY; FORESTS; WETLANDS; CRABS; PROGRESS REPORT

Citation Formats

Wiegert, R. Theoretical models of the impact of climate change on natural populations, communities and ecosystems. Final report, 1989--1992. United States: N. p., 1992. Web. doi:10.2172/34451.
Wiegert, R. Theoretical models of the impact of climate change on natural populations, communities and ecosystems. Final report, 1989--1992. United States. doi:10.2172/34451.
Wiegert, R. Thu . "Theoretical models of the impact of climate change on natural populations, communities and ecosystems. Final report, 1989--1992". United States. doi:10.2172/34451. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/34451.
@article{osti_34451,
title = {Theoretical models of the impact of climate change on natural populations, communities and ecosystems. Final report, 1989--1992},
author = {Wiegert, R.},
abstractNote = {Land use change is a relatively understudied aspect of global change. In many cases, the impact of land use on plant and animal species may be far greater than the impact of climate change per se. As an integral part of our long-term studies of the response of animal populations to global change, we have focused on land use change as a dominant driving force. Climate change, no doubt, will also play a role in determining the future abundance and distribution of many species, but, for many species, the signal from climate change per se may be difficult to detect if we do not first understand the impact of land use change. This formed the dominant theme of the research by the PI (Pulliam). Both land use change and year to year climate change can directly affect other populations and two examples of this formed the focus of the remaining research, models of invertebrates in Carolina Bays and a model of a commercial estuarine population of blue crabs.},
doi = {10.2172/34451},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 1992},
month = {Thu Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 1992}
}

Technical Report:

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  • Objectives can be divided into those for plant modeling and those for ecosystem modeling and experimental work in support of both. The author worked in a variety of ecosystem types, including pine, arctic, desert, and grasslands. Plant modeling objectives are: (1) to construct generic models of leaf, canopy, and whole-plant response to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (2) to validate predictions of whole-plant response against various field studies of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (3) to use these models to test specific hypotheses and to make predictions about primary, secondary and tertiary effects of elevated CO{sub 2} andmore » climate change on individual plants for conditions and time frames beyond those used to calibrate the model; and (4) to provide information to higher-level models, such as community models and ecosystem models. Ecosystem level modeling objectives are: (1) to incorporate models of plant responses to elevated CO{sub 2} into a generic ecosystem model in order to predict the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on ecosystems; (2) to validate model predictions of total system-level response (including decomposition) against various ecosystem field studies of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change; (3) to use the ecosystem model to test specific hypotheses and to make predictions about primary, secondary and tertiary effects of elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change on ecosystems for conditions and time frames beyond those used to calibrate the model; and (4) to use the ecosystem model to study effects of change in CO{sub 2} and climate at regional and global scales. Occasionally the author conducted some experimental work that was deemed important to the development of the models. This work was mainly physiological work that could be performed in the Duke University Phytotron, using existing facilities.« less
  • This final report provides a broad overview of program accomplishments. Brief descriptions are provided for accomplishments with respect to intercomparisions and improvements in general circulation models, analysis of climatic data and climate model statistics, and accomplishments in the China Meteorology coordination.
  • The response of the 8 x 10{degree} horizontal resolution version of Model 2 to the forcing of globally observed SST (1980--1986) was evaluated. The simulations showed a realistic interannual variability of interhemispheric gradients of layer mean temperatures in response to observed SST gradients, but modeled near-surface winds over the Atlantic Ocean were much weaker than observed, a symptom of the Model 2 planetary boundary layer (PBL). In addition, the interannual variability of peak-season rainfall rates over Northeast Brazil (Nordeste) from the experiment was considerably smaller than the observed, although the observed negative association between seasonal Nordeste rainfall and interhemispheric Atlanticmore » SST differences was weakly present. Preliminary experiments at 4 x 5{degree} resolution incorporating two of the new model parameterizations show more variability of the simulated Nordeste rainfall in response to the SST forcing, but only slight improvement in the correlation with observations.« less
  • Our studies focus on attempting to understand the role of decomposer-primary producer linkages in successional dynamics. We are testing a series of hypotheses that relate changes in plant species composition during succession to changes in activity and structure of the soil microfloral and faunal community, dynamics of soil organic matter, and availability of soil nutrients. As these successional patterns are identified, they are being applied to understanding specific processes and mechanics involved in ecosystem development during recovery from moderate and severe disturbances. These findings are then being used in conjunction with simulation models to assess potential effects of climate changemore » on ecosystems. Our research involves field studies in northwestern Colorado and southeastern Washington, laboratory studies, and simulation modeling. Ongoing projects include studies of response patterns of primary producer and soil microbial communities to nutrient additions (N, P, and sucrose), the function of mycorrhizal fungi in plant community development, and the dynamics of litter decomposition under semiarid conditions. New studies are being implemented to investigate the significance of nutrient transfers from VAM fungi to plants and plant-root exudate interactions, and to relate this to understanding their roles in succession.« less
  • In recognition of the role of plants in the bio-geosphere carbon cycle, the Department of Energy (OHER) initiated a research program: The Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation. This report describes the continuing research that we are conducting as part of this program. The ultimate goal of our research is to develop computer models capable of predicting responses of plants and ecosystems to the direct and indirect effects of atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide that are approximately twice those of the preindustrial period. The understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO{sub 2} necessarily depends on knowledge of responsesmore » of individual plants and their interactions with one another and their environment Our research approach incorporates the study and modeling of response to CO{sub 2} at all levels of the plant-community-ecosystem hierarchy, in an effort to understand the linkages and translation of effects of CO{sub 2} from one level to another. The research results reported here focus at several different levels of this hierarchy, and are highlights of accomplishments for the period September 1992 to June 1993.« less