Biases in Preconstruction Estimates of Wind Plant Annual Energy Production

Journal Article · Fri Apr 17 00:00:00 UTC 2026 · Wind Energy Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1251-2026· OSTI ID:3362639

Hammond, Rob ^[1]; Simley, Eric ^[1]

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1. National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of -7.4 % to -6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to -6.7 % to -5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

• Research Organization: National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation (CMEI), Office of Energy Technology (E-Tech). Integrated Energy Systems Office
• Grant/Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308
• OSTI ID: 3362639
• Report Number(s): NLR/JA-5000-94574
• Journal Information: Wind Energy Science, Journal Name: Wind Energy Science Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 11
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

17 WIND ENERGY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
energy production
energy yield assessment
operational analysis
preconstruction bias
resource assessment
wind
wind power