Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

Conference · Wed Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1997

OSTI ID:330652

Thomas, C E; James, B D; Lomax, Jr, F D ^[1]

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1. Directed Technologies, Inc., Arlington, VA (United States)

Fuel cell vehicles may create the first mass market for hydrogen as an energy carrier. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the US Department of Energy hydrogen systems analysis team, has developed a time-dependent computer market penetration model. This model estimates the number of fuel cell vehicles that would be purchased over time as a function of their cost and the cost of hydrogen relative to the costs of competing vehicles and fuels. The model then calculates the return on investment for fuel cell vehicle manufacturers and hydrogen fuel suppliers. The model also projects the benefit/cost ratio for government--the ratio of societal benefits such as reduced oil consumption, reduced urban air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions to the government cost for assisting the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The purpose of this model is to assist industry and government in choosing the best investment strategies to achieve significant return on investment and to maximize benefit/cost ratios. The model can illustrate trends and highlight the sensitivity of market penetration to various parameters such as fuel cell efficiency, cost, weight, and hydrogen cost. It can also illustrate the potential benefits of successful R and D and early demonstration projects. Results will be shown comparing the market penetration and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Other alternative fueled vehicles including natural gas hybrids, direct injection diesels and hydrogen-powered internal combustion hybrid vehicles will also be analyzed.

• Research Organization: National Hydrogen Association, Washington, DC (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• OSTI ID: 330652
• Report Number(s): CONF-970385--PROC.; ON: DE99001002
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
ELECTRIC-POWERED VEHICLES
HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS
MARKET
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS