When Do Riverine Systems “Feel the Burn”? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export

Wampler, Katherine A.; Myers‐Pigg, Allison N.; Kang, H.; Regier, Peter J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.; Bladon, Kevin D.

doi:10.1029/2025WR040678

When Do Riverine Systems “Feel the Burn”? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export

Journal Article · Fri Jan 30 00:00:00 EST 2026 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040678· OSTI ID:3022008

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Sequim, WA (United States); Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Sequim, WA (United States); Univ. of Toledo, OH (United States)
Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Sequim, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States)

Wildfires impact terrestrial landscapes and downstream river corridors through shifts in vegetation and soil properties leading to downstream hydrologic and water quality impacts. The magnitude of these impacts depend on a complex and interconnected set of wildfire, landscape, and aquatic processes. Here, we isolate the impact of post-fire hydrologic changes on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We explore how responses differ across burn severity and area burned in two test basins: a humid forested basin and a semi-arid mixed land use basin. We ran 1830 wildfire simulations testing impacts of area burned, burn severity, and post-fire precipitation on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon. Our work suggests that area burned thresholds differ with burn severity and analyte. Additionally, post-fire transport of dissolved organic carbon was sensitive to both area burned and severity, while nitrate was primarily sensitive to area burned. Despite a muted (−9.5 to 5.7 mm yr⁻¹ change) hydrologic response in the semi-arid basin, the model predicted large (7%–288% increase) shifts in dissolved organic carbon, suggesting that post-fire shifts in flow pathways and soil properties are key in its response. The limited shifts in nitrate responses in the simulations highlight that terrestrial post-fire transformations, rather than hydrologic changes, may control the increases in stream nitrate often observed post-fire. As wildfire regimes are shifting, improving understanding of post-fire nutrient export responses is critical to protect freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystems.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS); United States Forest Service (USFS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Other Award/Contract Number:: 54737
22‐JV‐11261952‐071
23-JV-11261954-057

OSTI ID:: 3022008

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--209947

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 62; ISSN 0043-1397; ISSN 1944-7973

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Physical and biogeochemical drivers of solute mobilization and flux through the critical zone after wildfire Sánchez, Rodrigo Andrés; Meixner, Thomas; Roy, Tirthankar Frontiers in Water, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2023.1148298	journal	May 2023
National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2016 Products (ver. 2.0, July 2020) Dewitz, Jon U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P96HHBIE	dataset	January 2019
MCD15A3H MODIS/Terra+Aqua Leaf Area Index/FPAR 4-day L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V006 Myneni, Ranga; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Park, Taejin NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD15A3H.006	dataset	January 2015
MODIS/Terra Net Evapotranspiration Gap-Filled 8-Day L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V061 Running, Steve; Mu, Qiaozhen; Zhao, Maosheng NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD16A2GF.061	dataset	January 2021

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