How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

Nemnem, Ayman Mokhtar; Tanim, Ahad Hasan; Nahian, Audrika; Khan, Sadik; Goharian, Erfan; Imran, Jasim

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-59261-9

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

Journal Article · Tue May 06 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59261-9· OSTI ID:3018165

Nemnem, Ayman Mokhtar ^[1]; ^[2]; Nahian, Audrika ^[3]; Khan, Sadik ^[3]; Goharian, Erfan ^[4]; ^[1]

Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States)
Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS (United States)
Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States); RESPEC, San Diego, CA (United States)

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOD; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

Other Award/Contract Number:: 2152896
W912HZ21C0067

OSTI ID:: 3018165

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 16; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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