Total cost of ownership of vehicle electrification and fuel switching options for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles

Journal Article · Thu Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2025 · eTransportation

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.etran.2025.100512· OSTI ID:3017405

Baek, Kwang Hoon ^[1]; Wu, Xinyi ^[1]; Zhou, Yan ^[1]; Vijayagopal, Ram ^[1]; Kim, Namdoo ^[1]; Elgowainy, Amgad ^[1]

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1. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Projecting the transition from combustion engines to battery-based powertrains is complex becuase it involves numerous interdependent decisions. This study estimates total cost of ownership (TCO) to assess the economic viability of powertrain electrification, focusing exclusively on advances in vehicle and fuel technologies. Under two bounding technology-progress scenarios, we develop vehicle designs and fuel cost trajectories, which serve as inputs to TCO projections for selected classes from 2021 to 2050. We analyzed a small sport utility vehicle (SUV) to represent the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, and four medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) classes: Class 6 box delivery, Class 8 drayage, Class 8 long-haul, and Class 8 transit bus. For each class, we compared the TCO of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEVs) against conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The results show that modern ICEVs generally have lower TCO; however, BEVs and FCHEVs could match or have lower TCOs than ICEVs over time, depending on technological progress. In LDVs, BEV300 is projected to deliver the lowest TCO by 2050, particularly under the high-progress scenario. In MHDVs, both BEVs and FCHEVs could become more cost-competitive than ICEVs by 2050 in the high-progress case. Beyond these results, the findings suggest further investigation is warranted for BEV charging infrastructure, FCHEV hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and MHDV charging strategies. In conclusion, these factors could reduce the fuel-cost share of TCO and enhance the competitiveness of BEVs and FCHEVs relative to ICEVs.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-06CH11357
• OSTI ID: 3017405
• Journal Information: eTransportation, Journal Name: eTransportation Vol. 27; ISSN 2590-1168
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

Battery electric vehicle
Fuel cell electric vehicle
Total cost of ownership
Vehicle electrification