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What CMIP6 Models Tell Us About the Impact of AMOC Variability on the Arctic

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116282· OSTI ID:3014016
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  3. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)
  4. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  5. The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore MD (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
In this paper we address the question whether variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its associated heat transport at mid-latitudes impacts the Arctic Earth system. To that end, we perform coherence analysis on time series of ocean heat transport, AMOC strength, and Arctic climate metrics across a large number of models from the CMIP6 ensemble. We find that, on multidecadal timescales, the majority of CMIP6 models indeed display a statistically significant relationship between AMOC at mid-latitudes (45 °N) and metrics like Arctic surface air temperatures and sea ice. However, our results do not support the narrative that heat transport anomalies at lower latitudes propagate northward toward the Arctic. Instead, our results confirm that variability in meridional ocean heat transport arises in the subpolar North Atlantic and propagates southward and northward.
Research Organization:
Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
89243019SSC000030; AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
3014016
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 2587062
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--210676
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 17 Vol. 52; ISSN 1944-8007; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

Arctic Ocean warming
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
CMIP6