Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

Gaffey, C. B.; Frey, K. E.; Rogan, J.; Estes, L.; Cooper, L. W.; Clement Kinney, J.; Grebmeier, J. M.

doi:10.1029/2025JC022498

Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

Journal Article · Fri Sep 19 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022498· OSTI ID:3013992

^[1]; ^[1]; Rogan, J. ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[2]

Clark University, Worcester, MA (United States)
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Solomons, MD (United States)
Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)

This study investigates environmental drivers of fall phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic, focusing on the northern Bering and Chukchi seas. Random Forests models were used to analyze covariates of fall phytoplankton blooms from 2013 to 2018, incorporating shipboard, remote sensing, and modeled environmental properties. Four regional models and one comprehensive all-station model considered fall as well as midsummer conditions. Midsummer properties included suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and the proportion of degraded pheophytin to chlorophyll-a used as a proxy for bloom stage. Open water duration was one of the highest ranked factors in predicting fall blooms. Open water duration also influences the stage of midsummer (July) blooms as indicated by pheophytin proportions, which in turn were the highest-ranked factor for predicting fall bloom events in the Chirikov Basin (northern Bering Sea between St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait) and the Chukchi Sea. Wind direction, specifically easterly winds, was an important predictor in the northern Bering Sea. Maximum wind speed ranked highly at stations located within the nutrient-poor Alaska Coastal Current in the Chukchi Sea. However, stormy days, average and maximum wind speeds generally ranked low in importance as a predictor of fall bloom events. Other parameters, including photosynthetic active radiation, modeled nutrient concentrations, mixed layer depth, and time since sea ice breakup date showed strong but regionally varying relationships with fall blooms. Altogether, results from these Random Forests models suggest that high wind events and storms in the absence of sea ice provide an incomplete narrative for initiating fall bloom events.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89243019SSC000030

OSTI ID:: 3013992

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 130; ISSN 2169-9275; ISSN 2169-9291

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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