Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Li, Zhi; Li, Bing; Jiang, Peishi; Hammond, Glenn E.; Shuai, Pin; Zahura, Faria Tuz; Coon, Ethan T.; Chen, Xingyuan

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134538

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Journal Article · Fri Nov 14 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Journal of Hydrology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134538· OSTI ID:3008936

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States)
Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 3008936

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--191269

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrology, Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology Vol. 664; ISSN 0022-1694

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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