Post-2026 Environmental Impact Statement Rate Analysis for the Colorado River Storage Project

Technical Report · Mon Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2025

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/3007073· OSTI ID:3007073

Yu, Ao ^[1]; Ploussard, Quentin ^[1]; Pavičević, Matija ^[1]; Wilhite, Jerry ^[1]

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1. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a principal power-generating asset within the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP), accounting for approximately 70–80% of CRSP power production over the past two decades. In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) issued a Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) outlining operational guidelines and strategies for Colorado River Basin reservoirs after 2026 (Reclamation, 2023). Power generation is among CRSP’s statutory purposes under the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956 (U.S. Congress, 1956). Assessing how alternative policy frameworks affect CRSP power production and the resulting electricity rates for U.S. customers is therefore essential to inform decision-making. This report evaluates projected electricity rates and the market value of electricity from the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) CRSP GCD under multiple post-2026 policy scenarios to support Reclamation’s EIS development. Results from advanced econometric and machine learning models indicate that the Enhanced Coordination alternative (EnhanCoor), Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative (CCA), and Supply Driven - 55 alternative (SD55) alternatives yield more favorable hydropower generation and capacity outcomes, which are objectives outlined in Reclamation’s documentations (Reclamation, 2007; Reclamation, 2016). Specifically, these scenarios are associated with higher electricity production, lower projected rate trajectories, and greater economic value to the U.S. power system from CRSP generation. The remaining five scenarios generally produce lower generation, higher rate trajectories, and reduced long-term market values.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-06CH11357
• OSTI ID: 3007073
• Report Number(s): ANL--25/65; 200978
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

13 HYDRO ENERGY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES