Impact of Urbanization on Convection, Lightning, and Precipitation Over the Houston Metropolitan Area: Case Study Simulation From the TRACER Campaign

Journal Article · Thu Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005327· OSTI ID:3005647

Iguchi, T. ^[1]; Tao, Z. ^[2]; Yoo, J. ^[1]; Bruning, E. C. ^[3]; Mansell, E. R. ^[4]; Matsui, T. ^[1]; van Lier‐Walqui, M. ^[5]; Chin, M. ^[6]; Lawston‐Parker, P. ^[1]; Santanello, J. A. ^[6]; Shepherd, J. M. ^[7]

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1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
2. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Morgan State Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)
3. Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States)
4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Norman, OK (United States). National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)
5. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
6. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
7. Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)

This study investigates the effects of urbanization, specifically land use change and anthropogenic emissions (AE), on convection, lightning, and surface precipitation for a case of summertime sea‐breeze convection observed over the Houston metropolitan area. The unique capabilities of the NASA‐Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model allows us to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments with complex configurations, in particular including multi‐year land model spin‐up simulations, treatment of aerosols and their precursors, and explicit cloud charging and lightning. The simulation results show that urban land use primarily alters the temporal evolution of convection, lightning, and surface precipitation, leading to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The decrease in latent heat flux from the land surface caused by urbanization weakens convection in the early afternoon, while a condition suitable for convection development is maintained in the late afternoon due to less stabilization of the lower troposphere by the weaker convection development and high sensible heat flux from the surface. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosols directly enhance convection, lightning, and surface precipitation by increasing convective updrafts due to the aerosol‐induced convective invigoration. The combined effects of urban land use and AE lead to even stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon, mostly consistent with observations. These results indicate that urbanization increases the probability of late afternoon thunderstorms over the Houston area during the summer season. Advanced weather forecasting models that incorporate these urbanization effects might support sustainable urban planning to better mitigate the impacts of urbanization on local weather and public safety.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center
• Sponsoring Organization: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)
• Contributing Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725; SC0021247
• OSTI ID: 3005647
• Journal Information: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 17; ISSN 1942-2466
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English