Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Ding, Junyan; McDowell, Nate; Bailey, Vanessa L.; Conroy, Nate; Day, Donnie J.; Fang, Yilin; Kemner, Kenneth M.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Koven, Charlie D.; Kovach, Matthew; Megonigal, Patrick; Morris, Kendalynn A.; O'Meara, Teri; Pennington, Stephanie C.; Peixoto, Roberta B.; Thornton, Peter; Weintraub, Mike; Regier, Peter J.; Sandoval, Leticia; Machado-Silva, Fausto; Stearns, Alice; Ward, Nick D.; Wilson, Stephanie J.

doi:10.5194/bg-22-6963-2025

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Journal Article · Thu Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Biogeosciences (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6963-2025· OSTI ID:3005266

^[1]; McDowell, Nate ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; ^[3]; ^[6]; Kirwan, Matthew L. ^[7]; ^[8]; Kovach, Matthew ^[5]; ^[9]; Morris, Kendalynn A. ^[10]; ^[11]; ^[10]; Peixoto, Roberta B. ^[5]; ^[11]; ^[5]; Regier, Peter J. ^[12]; Sandoval, Leticia ^[5]; Machado-Silva, Fausto ^[5] more »

Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Univ. of Toledo, OH (United States)
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Sequim, WA (United States)

Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); US Department of Energy; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23), Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (SC-23.1 ); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 3005266

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 3005453
OSTI ID: 3009051

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--216284

Journal Information:: Biogeosciences (Online), Journal Name: Biogeosciences (Online) Journal Issue: 22 Vol. 22; ISSN 1726-4189

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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