Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation

Brethauer, Daniel; Kasen, D.; Margutti, R.; Chornock, R.

doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ad7d83

Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation

Journal Article · Mon Nov 04 23:00:00 EST 2024 · The Astrophysical Journal

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad7d83· OSTI ID:3004744

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University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r-process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r-process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST); National Science Foundation (NSF); Heising–Simons Foundation; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Nuclear Physics (NP); Simons Foundation

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0004658; SC0024388

OSTI ID:: 3004744

Journal Information:: The Astrophysical Journal, Journal Name: The Astrophysical Journal Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 975; ISSN 0004-637X; ISSN 1538-4357

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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