Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous United States

Liu, Jinxun; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Cochrane, Mark A.; Zhou, Qiang; Wang, Bin; Domke, Grant M.; Selmants, Paul C.; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie; Zhu, Qiuan; Wilson, Tamara S.; Byrd, Kristin B.; Ward, Eric J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhang, Zhen; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adx7823

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous United States

Journal Article · Wed Nov 12 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Science Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx7823· OSTI ID:3004281

^[1]; Sleeter, Benjamin M. ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; ^[1]; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie ^[1]; ^[6]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[7]; ^[1]; ^[1]; Zhang, Zhen ^[8]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]

US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, Cambridge, MD (United States). Center for Environmental Science (UMCES)
Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI), contractor to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Pueblo, CO (United States)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)
Hohai University, Nanjing (China)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO ₂ fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); USDOD; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC02-06CH11357; AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 3004281

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 46 Vol. 11; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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