Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Zhang, Xiangdong; Vihma, Timo; Rinke, Annette; Moore, G. W. K.; Tang, Han; Äijälä, Cecilia; DuVivier, Alice; Huang, Jianbin; Landrum, Laura; Li, Chao; Zhang, Jing; Boisvert, Linette; Cheng, Bin; Cohen, Judah; Handorf, Dörthe; Hanna, Edward; Hartmuth, Katharina; Jonassen, Marius O.; Luo, Yong; Murto, Sonja; Overland, James E.; Parker, Chelsea; Perrie, William; Schulz, Kirstin; Schweiger, Axel; Spengler, Thomas; Steele, Michael; Tung, Wen-wen; Tyrrell, Nicholas; Valkonen, Elina; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Zhuo; Weijer, Wilbert; Wickström, Siiri; Wu, Yutian; Zhang, Minghong

doi:10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Journal Article · Tue Oct 21 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4· OSTI ID:3000242

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; Tang, Han ^[5]; ^[6]; DuVivier, Alice ^[7]; Huang, Jianbin ^[8]; ^[7]; ^[9]; ^[10]; Boisvert, Linette ^[11]; ^[2]; ^[12]; ^[3]; ^[13]; Hartmuth, Katharina ^[14]; ^[15]; Luo, Yong ^[16]; Murto, Sonja ^[17] more »

North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC (United States); North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)
Finnish Meteorological Inst. (FMI), Helsinki (Finland)
Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany)
University of Toronto, ON (Canada)
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)
University of Helsinki (Finland)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
East China Normal University (ECNU), Shanghai (China)
North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC (United States)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA (United States); Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
University of Lincoln (United Kingdom)
Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Zurich (Switzerland)
University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Longyearbyen (Norway)
Tsinghua University, Beijing (China)
Stockholm University (Sweden); Uppsala University (Sweden)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Bedford Inst. of Oceanography (BIO), Dartmouth, NS (Canada)
University of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
University of Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States)
Finnish Meteorological Inst. (FMI), Helsinki (Finland); Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS (Canada)

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. In this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. In conclusion, future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Science Foundation (NSF); US Department of the Navy, Office of Naval Research (ONR); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; SC0024872

OSTI ID:: 3000242

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--189686

Journal Information:: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 6; ISSN 2662-138X

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Process Drivers, Inter-Model Spread, and the Path Forward: A Review of Amplified Arctic Warming Taylor, Patrick C.; Boeke, Robyn C.; Boisvert, Linette N. Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 9 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.758361	journal	February 2022
Impact of three intense winter cyclones on the sea ice cover in the Barents Sea: A case study with a coupled regional climate model Aue, Lars; Röntgen, Leonie; Dorn, Wolfgang Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 11 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1112467	journal	April 2023
Antarctic extreme events Siegert, Martin J.; Bentley, Mike J.; Atkinson, Angus Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol. 11 https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1229283	journal	August 2023
Arctic sea ice coverage from 43 years of satellite passive-microwave observations Parkinson, Claire L. Frontiers in Remote Sensing, Vol. 3 https://doi.org/10.3389/frsen.2022.1021781	journal	October 2022
Arctic Intense Summer Storms and Their Impacts on Sea Ice—A Regional Climate Modeling Study Semenov, Alexander; Zhang, Xiangdong; Rinke, Annette Atmosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10040218	journal	April 2019
A case study of strong winds at an Arctic front Grønås, Sigbjørn; Skeie, Paul Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 51, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v51i5.14498	journal	January 1999
Atmospheric rivers and associated precipitation patterns during the ACLOUD and PASCAL campaigns near Svalbard (May–June 2017): case studies using observations, reanalyses, and a regional climate model Viceto, Carolina; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; Rinke, Annette Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-441-2022	journal	January 2022
Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers Ma, Weiming; Wang, Hailong; Chen, Gang Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 24, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024	journal	April 2024
The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record Rohde, Robert A.; Hausfather, Zeke Earth System Science Data, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020	journal	January 2020
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IAPv4 ocean temperature and ocean heat content gridded dataset Cheng, Lijing; Pan, Yuying; Tan, Zhetao Earth System Science Data, Vol. 16, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3517-2024	journal	August 2024
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016	journal	January 2016
The 2018 North Greenland polynya observed by a newly introduced merged optical and passive microwave sea-ice concentration dataset Ludwig, Valentin; Spreen, Gunnar; Haas, Christian The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2051-2019	journal	January 2019
Unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) drive the 2019 exceptional melting season over the Greenland ice sheet Tedesco, Marco; Fettweis, Xavier The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020	journal	January 2020
An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models Keen, Ann; Blockley, Ed; Bailey, David A. The Cryosphere, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021	journal	January 2021
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea Rieke, Ole; Årthun, Marius; Dörr, Jakob Simon The Cryosphere, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023	journal	April 2023
Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland Lee, Younjoo J.; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Cassano, John J. The Cryosphere, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-233-2023	journal	January 2023
Impact of atmospheric rivers on Arctic sea ice variations Li, Linghan; Cannon, Forest; Mazloff, Matthew R. The Cryosphere, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024	journal	January 2024
Brief communication "Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet" Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Lang, C. The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013	journal	January 2013
Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data Tedesco, M.; Fettweis, X.; Mote, T. The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013	journal	January 2013
Origins of multi-decadal variability in sudden stratospheric warmings Dimdore-Miles, Oscar; Gray, Lesley; Osprey, Scott Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-205-2021	journal	March 2021
The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones Vessey, Alexander F.; Hodges, Kevin I.; Shaffrey, Len C. Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022	journal	September 2022
Characteristics of long-track tropopause polar vortices Bray, Matthew T.; Cavallo, Steven M. Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022	journal	March 2022
On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe Riebold, Johannes; Richling, Andy; Ulbrich, Uwe Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023	journal	July 2023

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